3 More Weeks!

So this is it! Big Brown demolished the field in the Preakness, cruised home and on his way to the Belmont and the Triple Crown. He will attempt the same thing that 10 other Derby-Preakness winners failed to do in the last 30 years since Affirmed: Spectacular Bid, Pleasant Colony, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide and most recently, Smarty Jones.

So can Big Brown do it? Is there any different this time comparing to the last time. I am not going to discuss whether Big Brown is "great" or a worthy Triple Crown IF he wins, and how Big Brown compares to Smarty Jones, or Curlin, or some of the recent so-called "great", or previous Triple Crown winners. I just want to look at the race itself.

Every race that Big Brown wins has further strengthened the argument that he is a freak, and he is the clear stand-out in this crop. He has done so many things that you wouldn't think it is possible. Yes I know the crop is weak, but there were weak crops too in the past. I think we were just lucky in the last few years to have high-quality three-year-olds, and 3-year-olds that overcome some hurdles and jinx and have not been seen before. I know Casino Drive has also achieved extraordinary things in a very short career, much like Big Brown. His win in the Peter Pan was also impressive. But so did Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby, so did Pyro in the Louisiana Derby, etc.

In my opinion, The Belmont will come down to the final quarter mile. The question is can Big Brown stay 12f relatively to the other horses in the field. Based on pedigree and running style, one can expect Casino Drive, Denis of Cork or even Anak Nakal can stay the Belmont distance and Big Brown cannot. But I don't see they have the class YET (based on what they have shown on the racetrack) to run against Big Brown, regardless of distance and surface as long as Big Brown is fit. So it is like you have a Grade 3 12f specialist running against a Grade 1 10f specialist in a 12f race. In this condition at level weight, only the Grade 1 horse can beat himself.

I don't support the use of steroid, but as long as it is still an acceptable medication used then there is nothing I can complain against. I don't care about whether people like or don't like the trainer or jockey or owner. Certainly Big Brown won't know anything about it. Based on current progress and form, Big Brown is the horse with the highest chance to win the Belmont. Can he lose? Certainly he can. As anything can happen in horse racing. But I guess I am one of those people that really want to see a Triple Crown winner now and Big Brown is the chance this year so I will support him. Whatever!

So we'll wait for the big race in 3 weeks time, and let the debate continues for the next 2.5 weeks time. It seems that all racing happening in this 3-weeks time are unimportant.

The Irish 1000 Guineas, Irish 2000 Guineas and the Tattersalls Gold Cup are running this weekend and a lot of nice horses will be running at the Curragh. And Viva Pataca will go for his third Hong Kong Champion and Chater Cup this Sunday at Sha Tin. So racing is indeed still going on in the rest of the world.