March 21, 2010 Racing Review - Cheltenham 2010

Day 1 - Tuesday March 16, 2010, Arkle Chase-G1, 2m, Old Course - Sizing Europe
The first time I saw Sizing Europe was his victory in the AIG European Champion Hurdle-G1 at Leopardstown in January 2008, demolishing the 5/2 Hardy Eustace by 8 lengths. My first reaction was, "Wow! This hurdler has a chase-type of jump. That was huge!" I liked him in the '08 Champion Hurdle but he just didn't fire up that day and ran 14 of 15 as the 2/1 favourite. He only ran 3 times in hurdle races in 08/09 and winless. He switched to the big fences in May 2009 and since then he was 4 for 4 going to the Arkle. Since his last performance at Cheltenham was so bad, many punters perceived him as a good horse who failed on the biggest day. Sizing Europe proved without dispute that he was the best 2 miles novices' chaser in the 2009/2010 season. He was always attacking the pace and in control of the race. When he took the lead with 2 out, he probably jumped the 2 best fences. Although start tiring, he maintained his leading position and with his guts fighted off the late challenge from Somersby and Osana and won the race by 3/4 length.

Racing Post Chart

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Day 2, Wednesday, March 17, 2010, Neptune Novices' Hurdle-G1, 2m5f, Old Course - Peddlers Cross
In the horse racing world, we fancied undefeated horses. Zenyatta is the best example in recent years. Her unbeaten record through multiple seasons has kept fans and punters around the world cheering for several years. One can find plenty of undefeated horses in the novices' hurdle, juvenile hurdle or the bumper. Peddlers Cross, after winning the Neptune Novices' Hurdle, is now 4 for 4 for this 5-year-old gelding by prominant jump sire Oscar.

There was not much of a pace and the first and last runners were separated by only about 7-8 lengths. At about 7 furlongs out when the field was approaching the downhill, the pace quicken and 8 horses in the leading group all had a chance to win. Peddlers Cross jumped consistently and out-run the horses. He has a bright future.

Racing Post Chart





Day 3, Thursday, March 18, 2010, Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)-L, 3m, New Course - Buena Vista
This is conditional jockey Hadden Frost's first victory in the festival, and IMO, this is a gutsy, fearless ride. The atmosphere at Cheltenham is second to none. This is every jump jockey's dream to be able to wave his/her stick and crossing the wire first in any race at the festival. It doesn't matter what the odds of your horse is. You are surrounded by racing fans cheering and yelling.

I'm not sure if Hadden Frost knew that Buena Vista's odd was a respectable 16/1, or that his OR was 133 and carrying the minimum weight of 10-1, or that his last win was more than 3 years ago in a Class 3 novices' chase. But I'm sure he knew that Buena Vista was second in this race last year, 5th in this race the year before, and third in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 2006. In al, this once 675,000 guineas yearling purchase by Demi O'Byrne had a 0 for 14 record at Cheltenham prior to this year's version of the Pertemps Final.

24 horses started in the race. Buena Vista was keen, lively, and jumped very big at the second flight. He took full charge of the front position after 4 flights and continued to jump fluently and comfortably. Frost maintained a quarter-length to half-length lead, knowing that 23 horses were running behind and they were all poised to overtake his position at any stage of the race whenever he just slowed down a bit or had a bad jump. But both the man and the horse did not panick. The pace was clearly quicken at the top of the hill second time around. The scene coming down the hill was scary - with a wall of horses all chasing behind Buena Vista. The good thing is neither the jockey nor the horse could see it. I supposed in all of Frost mind at that time were the 2 final fences. He made a mistake in the last and jumped through. He was tiring, but so did his closest challenge. In the end, Buena Vista made all and won by 5 lengths. his final time of 5 minutes 49.10 second was 0.3 second faster than the World Hurdle, which was run 75 minutes later. This was trainer David Pipe first of 2 win on Day 3 at Cheltenham.

Racing Post Chart





Day 3, Thursday, March 18, 2020, World Hurdle-G1, 3m, New Course - Big Buck's
By the time of the World Hurdle, fans and punters have already witness the defeat of giant odds-on money-horses Dunguib and Master Minded. Favourites were only 2 for 16 - both ridden by Ruby Walsh. However, Big Buck's completely toyed with the rest of the field and won decisively and handily by an easy 3¼ length. Big Buck's run has my vote as the best performance in this year's festival.

Racing Post Chart

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Day 4, Friday, March 19, 2010, Cheltenham Gold Cup-G1, 3m2f110y , New Course - Imperial Commander
In the biggest race of the festival and of the season, it was round 3 of Kauto Star vs Denman. However, it was the upcoming Imperial Commander who spoiled the party and defeated Denman soundly by 7 lengths. Kauto Star made a few mistakes and fell 4 out. The result was not of what most people expected, albeit still a very exciting race.

The result has illustrated that, even the best horse can make mistake, and in the world of horse racing and gambling, nothing is a guaranteed. It was a relief to see Kauto Star on his feet immediately after the fall, and Ruby galloped him back to let the Cheltenham fans to know that, he will be back. As for myfavourite Denman, it was absolutely a flawless ride by Tony McCoy and a game performance. But Imperial Commander has shown the world that he was capable to run against these bunch at this level, and like many winners this week, Cheltenham is his course.
Racing Post Chart

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Day 4, Friday, March 19, 2010, Grand Annual Chase-G3 (handicap), 2m, New Course - Pigeon Island
"It was THEIR world today at Cheltenham!"
This is the best way to sum up what trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies and jockey Paddy Brennan achieved on Gold Cup day. Paddy Brennan's ride on the 7-year-old Daylami gelding, Pigeon Island, has my vote as the best ride of the festival.

By the time the Grand Annual Chase was run, the racing condition was almost 180-degree different from the Arkle Chase on Day 1. It was rough, dark, wet and cool. Just look at Paddy Brennan when he finished the race. The going was SOFT. Pigeon Island was racing towards the rear for the early part of the race, then steadily progressed but was still at 10th, about 10 lengths behind when 2 out. Carrying only 10-1, he seemed to have the best momentum and took the lead soon after the last jump and fought off challenge from French Opera and Consigliere in the final 100 yards and won by 1¼ length.





Racing Post Chart

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March 16 - Cheltenham Day 1

Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Honestly quite difficult to find another horse who can beat Dunguib. He is the banker horse for the festival and fully support it. How low will he go?

Arkle Trophy
I don't get the impression Captain Cee Bee is a festival winner. I might be wrong, but I just don't think this is his day. Sizing Europe has the history of failing to delivery on the biggest day - as he did 2 years ago in the Champion Hurdle. I like him but that performance in 2008 was still so fresh in my mind. Skip!

William Hill Chase
Very exciting field! Theatrical Moment is my pick for a repeat by A.P. and Jonjo.

Champion Hurdle
This is the most competitive of the 4 championship races in the festival. It reminds me a bit of the mixture of the fields in the Hong Kong Derby that was just run over the weekend. That field included 6 or 7 legitimate horses. The one that seemed to have the best preparation and all things done prior to the big race are pointing the horse just at the top on the day.

I consider all of Binocular, Celestial Halo, Go Native, Khyber Kim, Medermit, Punjabi, Solwhit, Starluck and Zaynar have legitimate chance to win. My initial pick was Zaynar - love the grey and all his prior runs work well to have him doing his best here. But the fact that Geraghty stayed with Punjabi worried me. I still like him, but I will add Celestial Halo and Punjabi to the mix.

Cross Country Handicap Chase
It is hard to bet on a horse not trained by Enda Bolger in cross country chase, especially when he has 5 of the 16 horses in the field, all owned by J. P. McManus. Garde Champetre is the top-weight carring 11-12, giving 23-27 lbs to 11 other horses in the field. He will be a no-brainer pick if he has 7/2 or better. But at 9/4, you have to be more selective. Silver Birch, at 25/1, might not be a bad longshot bet though.

March 14, 2010 Racing Review - Unbelievable x 4

Unbelievable #1 - Steve Assmussen and Calvin Borel
Calvin Borel didn't let Rachel to take the lead after a half mile! Fractional times were 23.84, 47.72 and 1:12.86.

After the race, Asmussen said, "If I thought she'd get beat I wouldn't have run her today," Asmussen said. "We'll have to be cautious. We want to do what's right for the mare."

Poor tactics and the entire world know that she not is ready yet. She is not run to her best ability. Her strength is her tactical speed. And that's what should be used to spread out between her and the rest of the field after half mile. Instead of doing that, Borel let John Sheriff's other "Z" to come up to challenge Rachel and made it and 440 yards sprint race.

Borel said he rode to instructions, and would have preferred to have let Rachel take the lead earlier.

"I wanted to go on past the speed horse early," Borel said. "I'd have got by her anytime and my filly could have gone on, but they wanted me to wait and not get into her until the sixteenth pole."

This is unbelievable! Both the connection, trainer and jockey. I think Rachel Alexandra ran a huge race based on the circumstances and what happened. There is absolutely no reason to not move forward with the matchup with Zenyatta.




Unbelievable #2 - Odysseus
Odysseus won a very close head-bob with Schoolyard Dreams. Even the track announcer and the cameraperson were thinking it was Schoolyard Dreams' win. Odysseus lost position 5/16m to home and the tracker announcer even said that Odysseus had to wait for another day.

Official Chart: "ODYSSEUS raced closed up from the outset, bid after five furlongs, dropped back a bit into the furlong grounds then angled inside the final furlong and came back on again late to be up in the final strides by the narrowest of margins."




Unbelievable #3 - Mike Smith, Zenyatta and Santa Anita
Zenyatta and Mike Smith - 127 lbs top weight and same running style and always make her supporter so nervous. She steered back to the inside and in just a few stride (reminded me to Sea The Stars' stride in the Arc), she was in the lead and Mike was so confident. He just need a length and she gave him a quarter more.

Official Chart: "ZENYATTA content to lag back off the rail, raced well in hand while three wide to second bend, moved up from between foes, split horses in upper stretch, was steered to the rail nearing eighth marker, came back out some while lightly roused under hand urging, quickly inhaled leader, surged to the front and proved much best while in hand to the wire."

20,315 people came to the track to see Zenyatta's 15th consecutive win in as many start.




Unbelievable #4 - Oaklawn Park, Lookin At Lucky and Noble's Promise
36,298 people came to the track on this beautiful Saturday in March.
Noble's Promise is now 0 for 3 in the matchup with Lookin At Lucky. LAL may have more talent and LUCK, but Noble's Promise surely has a lot of heart. Their race today reminded me of Curlin vs. Lawyer Ron in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Both were 120% fully extended, they outclassed the rest of the field. Dublin was the only close to the dual but was still 3 lengths behind them.
What's more unbelievable was Lookin At Lucky's trip - it was definitely not fluent at all. Both Lookin At Lucky and Curlin are sired by Smart Strike, Sam-Son Farm's goldmine.

Official Chart: "Lookin At Lucky bothered start, settled off the pace and the inside, jumped across Noble's Promise heels when that one came out just outside the half mile marker, quickly recovered, advanced four wide into contention turning for home, set down, late bid, gained the nod in a game effort."

A champion making his 3-year-old debut and ran in such a fashion - this is a truly high-class performance and without a doubt the best 3-year-old performance thus far in the season.



Next week is the Cheltenham Festival.

March 7, 2010 Racing Review - Faint Perfume

Last Sunday (Feb 28) at the Professional Jockeys' Association's Lesters award ceremony, Tony McCoy received the awards for Jump Jockey of the Year and Jump Ride of the Year. His ride on Wichita Lineman in the 2009 William Hill Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival was voted by At The Races' viewers as the best jump ride of the year.

See the Racingpost story here.

Race Replay

Chart

March 6, Flemington, Kewney Stakes-G2, 1400m, 3-year-old fillies - Faint Perfume
It was not as astonishing as Makybe Diva's victory in the Memsie Stakes-G2 at 1400m, but Faint Perfume's performance in the $400,000 Kewney Stakes at the same distance was still a very impressive performance. The daugher of Shamardal won the Wakeful Stakes-G2 at 2000m and the Victoria Oaks-G1 at 2500m last spring before taking time off in the summer. 4 months later, she used this 1400m event as a prep for bigger stakes in the Autumn festivals. Broke sharply, but the lead was immediately overtaken by the other 9 fillies in the field and she maintained her rear position until the top of the straight. The pace was quick and set her up nicely for a run-down from the outside. Benefited from the long straight at Flemington and under a strong ride by Michael Rodd, Faint Perfume reached the lead in the final few stride and won "handily" by 3/4 length. According to a post-race report, she will attempt the AJC Derby-Oaks double, an attempt that Faint Perfume's grand-dam, Danendri, just missed in 1997.

Post-race Story

Picture of Faint Perfume's victory at Flemington

Faint Perfume has a yearling half-brother by first-crop sire Pendragon (by Elnadim, by Danzig) who will go to the sales ring at Inglis Easter Yearling Sale. He is a bay colt Lot 273.




Looking ahead next week:

• Santa Anita: the return of the undefeated super mare Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap
• Oaklawn: Rebel Stakes for 3-year-olds
• Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay Derby and Florida Oaks
• Sha Tin: Hong Kong Derby, arguably one of the best (in terms of quality) and competitive in recent years
• Flemington: Australian Guineas and Australian Cup will be run on 3/13 as the originally run was canceled at Flemington due to bad weather
• Randwick: Randwick Guineas
• Limited jump action in Britain and Ireland as all the major stables are preparing for the Cheltenham Festival from March 16-19